Guest program
CES Visiting Scholar
Contact
Center for Economic Studies (CES)
Schackstr. 4
80539 Munich, Germany
Phone:
+49 89 2180 2748
Email:
h.breinlich@surrey.ac.uk
Website:
Personal Website
Visiting period:
22 - 29 Jun 2024
Country
UK
Summary
The Impact of Trade Restrictions on Services Trade
Services account for one-third of global trade, yet little is known about the impact of trade restrictions on services trade. To make progress in this area, it is crucial to understand through which modes services are traded (cross-border, movement of people, foreign investment or consumption abroad) and how firms substitute among these modes. Holger Breinlich and his collaborators have provided novel micro-level evidence on firms’ mode choices, combining detailed data on UK firms’ trade and affiliates’ sales. The researchers also estimate the substitution between trade modes using Brexit as an exogenous shock. Preliminary results show that UK firms increasingly relied on local affiliate sales to serve the EU market after 2016. This shift protected firm-level services exports from expected higher trade barriers after Brexit, but at the cost of lower domestic employment.
During his stay at CES, Mr. Breinlich will work with Martina Magli on their joint project “Should we stay or should we go? Firms' decisions on services mode of supply”.
Holger Breinlich’s work has been published in leading peer-reviewed journals such as the Journal of International Economics, the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Journal. He has also carried out research projects for the OECD, the EU and several UK government departments. Between April 2019 and April 2020, he served as the representative of UK academia on the UK government's strategic trade advisory group. Current areas of research include international trade; the economic impact of free trade agreements; services trade; and the economic consequences of Brexit.
Holger Breinlich is a Professor of Economics at the University of Surrey (School of Economics) and has held previous positions at the Universities of Nottingham, Essex and Mannheim. He is also a research fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). Holger Breinlich obtained his PhD from the London School of Economics in 2006.