Assoc. Prof. Steve Cicala, Ph.D.

“The Energy Transition, Air Pollution, and Mortality”

This is the paper that Steve Cicala will be working on during his stay at CES. The paper studies the mortality benefits of the transition from coal-fired power generation in the U.S. Using hourly operational data of every generator from 1999–2019 combined with a high-frequency atmospheric dispersion model, Mr. Cicala and his co-authors estimate the contribution of each plant’s generation to downwind air quality. They use the reshuffling of generation across plants to estimate the mortality impacts of acute exposure to particulate matter among the elderly population. They find that 25% of U.S. fine particulates (PM2.5) in 1999 came from power plants, and that 40% of the air quality improvement from 1999–2019 was due to changes in electricity generation. They calculate one day of exposure to 1 microgram per cubic meter of PM2.5 raises senior mortality by 0.12%, and that one month of exposure raises total mortality by 0.5%. Using an empirical dispatch model to estimate counterfactual outcomes, they find that the shift away from coal was worth $50bn per year in reduced mortality by 2019.

Mr. Cicala’s work focuses on the economics of regulation, particularly with respect to environmental and energy policy. His other works in progress include: “Electricity Markets and Environmental Inequality,” “Electricity Consumption as a Real Time Indicator of Economic Activity” and “Making a Run on the Rate Base.”

Steve Cicala is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at Tufts University and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He also co-directs the NBER Project on the Economic Analysis of Regulation. In 2026 he will join the Department of Economics at the University of Zurich as the Vontobel Foundation Professor of Sustainable Economics. He holds a PhD and an AM in Economics from Harvard University as well as an AB in Economics from the University of Chicago.