Assist. Prof. Joris Mueller

Chinese Foreign Aid

Joris Mueller studies the political economy of autocracies and fragile democracies. His research asks what keeps regimes stable and what stability means for development. In "The Domestic Political Economy of China's Foreign Aid" (Review of Economics and Statistics), he shows that China directs more aid to firms from prefectures with recent unrest, evidence that autocrats use foreign policy to secure stability at home. In "State Building in a Diverse Society" (Review of Economic Studies, with Ruth Carlitz, Ameet Morjaria, and Philip Osafo-Kwaako), he shows that Ujamaa, Tanzania's nation-building policy, strengthened national identity, contributing to political stability but also decreasing the demand for democratic accountability.

Several working papers extend this agenda. "Public Displays of Alignment" (with Zi Yang Kang, Jaya Wen, and Cheryl Wu) asks why firms publicly echo government language and shows that Chinese listed firms' use of Communist Party phrases serves as a screening device, revealing which firms will provide costly political support. "The Long-Run Effects of Agricultural Productivity on Conflict, 1400–1900" (with Murat Iyigun, Nathan Nunn, and Nancy Qian) shows that the historical introduction of the potato permanently reduced conflict. Ongoing work traces China's influence on Hollywood and the consequences of U.S.-China technological rivalry on armed conflict.

At CES, Mueller will focus on post-conflict development, working with co-author Mathias Bühler (LMU Munich). They study Cambodia's landmine clearance campaign and ask when the windfall of cleared land translates into development. The answer depends on who can securely claim the land. Where households hold documented claims, clearance raises economic activity, while elsewhere the land is reallocated and contested.

Mueller is Assistant Professor of Economics at the National University of Singapore. He holds a PhD from Northwestern University and a master’s degree from the London School of Economics. At NUS, he teaches empirical methods, programming, and AI tools for economists.