Jun. Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern, Ph.D.

Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output

James Dovern, together with Christopher Zuber, has shown that downward revisions in OECD estimates of potential output are substantial and mostly driven by supply shocks, while potential output estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. In addition, revisions are partly caused by avoidable mismeasurement of potential output before recessions. In particular, he shows that the length of the preceding boom and pre-recession values of the current account balance and credit volumes are predictors of post-recession potential output revisions. His results call for improved methods for estimating potential output and provide evidence against the existence of substantial hysteresis effects of demand shocks.

Mr Dovern has worked in economic forecasting as well as in other fields of research, specifically financial policy and risks in the banking sector. He has published studies in economic journals on methods of forecasting, economic development, the emergence of expectations and on the stability of the banking sector.

While visiting CES, Mr Dovern will deliver 3 CES Lectures on "Expectations in Macroeconomics".

Jonas Dovern is Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics, Alfred Weber Institute for Economics, University of Heidelberg and cooperating partner of Kiel Economics, having previously served as researcher at the Forecasting Center of the Kiel Institute. He studied econometrics at Maastricht University and participated in the Advanced Studies Program at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. In 2009 he received his doctorate from Kiel University on expectations and forecasts of financial markets.

Lecture
Expectations in Macroeconomics (3 lectures)